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CUSUM change-point detection — how does it work?

hard

Answer

  • Cumulative sum of deviations from a reference mean: St  =  max(0,  St1  +  (xt    μ)    k)S_{t}\; = \;\operatorname{max}(0, \;S_{t - 1}\; + \;(x_{t}\; - \;{\mu})\; - \;k).
  • Alarm when St  >  thresholdS_{t}\; > \;\mathrm{threshold} h.
  • Quickly detects small persistent shifts.
  • Bidirectional variant.
  • Tune k, h to control false-alarm rate + detection latency.
  • Standard in manufacturing SPC, network monitoring, sensor drift.
  • Bayesian alternatives (BOCPD) provide posterior over change points.
Check yourself — multiple choice
  • Random
  • St  =  max(0,  St1  +  (xt    μ)    k)S_{t}\; = \;\operatorname{max}(0, \;S_{t - 1}\; + \;(x_{t}\; - \;{\mu})\; - \;k); alarm when St  >  hS_{t}\; > \;h; fast detection of small persistent shifts; standard in SPC / network monitoring
  • Same as z-score
  • Not real

CUSUM: cumulative sum with reset; fast change-point detection.

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