What do you need to know to compute a sample size for an experiment?
mediumAnswer
- Four things, and the hard one is not statistical.
- The baseline rate of the metric, its variance, which for a proportion follows from the baseline but for a revenue metric must be estimated and is usually much larger than people expect.
- The minimum detectable effect, meaning the smallest improvement that would actually change a decision, which is a business judgement and the input most often chosen to make the number look acceptable.
- Then the significance level and power, conventionally 5% and 80%, where power is the probability of detecting the effect if it is real.
- Sample size scales inversely with the square of the effect size, so halving the detectable effect quadruples the sample, which is why heavy-tailed revenue metrics often cannot be tested directly and are replaced by a capped or binary proxy.
Check yourself — multiple choice
- Only the desired p-value
- Baseline rate, metric variance, minimum detectable effect, and significance plus power — with sample size scaling as the inverse square of the effect
- Only the traffic volume
- Sample size cannot be planned
Baseline, variance, MDE, alpha and power determine sample size, which grows as the inverse square of the effect.
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Practise Statistics Fundamentals
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