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Logistic regression: why MLE and not OLS?

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Answer

  • Y ∈ {0, 1} → OLS predicts outside [0, 1] and residuals are heteroscedastic (Var = p(1-p)).
  • Logistic: p = σ(x'β), maximize Σ yiy_{i} log pi  +  (1    yi)p_{i}\; + \;(1\; - \;y_{i}) log(1    pi)\operatorname{log}(1\; - \;p_{i}).
  • No closed form → IRLS or gradient descent.
  • Softmax = generalization to k classes.
  • Interpretation: exp(βj)  =  odds\operatorname{exp}({\beta}_{j})\; = \;\mathrm{odds} ratio for a unit change in xjx_{j}.
  • Foundation of most tabular binary classifiers and the top layer of neural nets.
Check yourself — multiple choice
  • Use OLS
  • OLS predicts outside [0,1] with heteroscedastic residuals; logistic: MLE of Bernoulli with σ(x'β); exp(βj)  =  odds\operatorname{exp}({\beta}_{j})\; = \;\mathrm{odds} ratio for a unit change
  • Same as OLS
  • Requires normality

Logistic: MLE (Bernoulli); exp(βj)  =  odds\operatorname{exp}({\beta}_{j})\; = \;\mathrm{odds} ratio.

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