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What is E[X    Y]E[X\; \mid \;Y] and its Law of Total Expectation?

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Answer

  • E[X    Y  =  y]E[X\; \mid \;Y\; = \;y] is the expected value of X given that Y = y.
  • As a function of Y, E[X    Y]E[X\; \mid \;Y] is itself a random variable.
  • Law of total expectation (Adam's law): E[X]  =  E[E[X    Y]]E[X]\; = \;E[E[X\; \mid \;Y]] — average the conditional expectations over the distribution of Y.
  • Foundation for regression (E[YX]  is  the  best  predictor  of  Y)(E[Y \mid X]\;\mathrm{is}\;\mathrm{the}\;\mathrm{best}\;\mathrm{predictor}\;\mathrm{of}\;Y), Bayes' rule interpretation, and MCMC.
Check yourself — multiple choice
  • E[XY]  =  0E[X \mid Y]\; = \;0
  • E[XY=y]E[X \mid Y = y] is expected X given Y=y; Adam's law: E[X]  =  E[E[XY]]E[X]\; = \;E[E[X \mid Y]]
  • Only for discrete
  • Not a random variable

E[XY]E[X \mid Y]: conditional expectation as a function of Y; Adam's law: E[X]=E[E[XY]]E[X] = E[E[X \mid Y]].

#expectation#probability

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