What is E[X∣Y] and its Law of Total Expectation?
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- E[X∣Y=y] is the expected value of X given that Y = y.
- As a function of Y, E[X∣Y] is itself a random variable.
- Law of total expectation (Adam's law): E[X]=E[E[X∣Y]] — average the conditional expectations over the distribution of Y.
- Foundation for regression (E[Y∣X]isthebestpredictorofY), Bayes' rule interpretation, and MCMC.
Check yourself — multiple choice
- E[X∣Y]=0
- E[X∣Y=y] is expected X given Y=y; Adam's law: E[X]=E[E[X∣Y]]
- Only for discrete
- Not a random variable
E[X∣Y]: conditional expectation as a function of Y; Adam's law: E[X]=E[E[X∣Y]].
#expectation#probability
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