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What is off-policy evaluation and why is it hard?

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Answer

  • Off-policy evaluation estimates the value of a target policy using data collected by a different behavior policy — without deploying the new policy.
  • It's crucial in medicine, finance, and any high-stakes system where trying the new policy is risky.
  • It is hard because of distribution shift; techniques include importance sampling, doubly robust estimators, and model-based methods.
  • Variance and bias tradeoffs are severe.
Check yourself — multiple choice
  • OPE requires deploying the new policy to collect data
  • Importance sampling reweights returns to correct for policy mismatch
  • OPE is easy in high-dimensional problems
  • Doubly robust estimators use only importance sampling

Importance sampling corrects for the distribution difference between policies.

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